Academy Awards Predictions: Part 1

The following are my tentative predictions for the 2009 Academy Awards.


Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
*I’m being pretty risky with my picks this year, with the Slumdog train constantly picking up momentum, but this was such an incredible film. And winning would help make up for Zodiac not receiving one nomination last year.

Best Director
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
*Even if Slumdog manages to take best picture over Button, Fincher still deserves the best director award. (Did I mention that Zodiac didn’t receive on enomination last year?)

Best Screenplay (Adapted)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Eric Roth)
*From what I’ve heard (Planning on reading the short story soon), Roth’s adaptation took the story to a whole nother level. It definitely has it’s Forrest Gump influences, but it’s still a great story.

Best Screenplay (Original)
In Bruges (Martin McDonagh)
*There’s a lot of good competition this year, so it’s a hard call to make. Relative newcomer McDonagh wrote a mighty fine script. The underdog award goes to him.

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Best Actor
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
*Just watch The Wrestler, already.

Best Actress
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
*I admit that I haven’t seen The Reader yet, but I plan doing so before the ceremony. Anne Hathaway and Meryl Streep also have a decent chance here as well.

Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
*Especially in a year where there isn’t much competition in the supporting actor award (Why is Josh Brolin in there?), this is a lock.

Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
*Again, haven’t seen it, but it should be coming in via NetFlix today. I wouldn’t mind seeing Amy Adams or Marisa Tomei taking the award, either.

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Best Animated Feature
*Grade A work from Pixar, from start to finish.

Best Documentary Feature
Man on Wire
*Totally took my breath away; kicking myself that I didn’t see this in the theater when I had the chance. It is nice to see Herzog nominated as well, though it’s not one of his best films. I still have to see the other three nominations.

Best Foreign Language Feature
Waltz With Bashir
*I’m picking this solely on the buzz. I haven’t seen any of the films in this category yet.

I’ll continue with the technical awards at a later date…


8 Responses

  1. Nice list and explanations. I agree with most of your predictions, though I’d go for Meryl Streep over Kate Winslet…

  2. Wow, those are pretty risky. You don’t think Slumdog will win *any* of the major awards? Wow. Curious to see tech awards predictions!

  3. These are all excellent predictions Joseph, and I will call the same EXCEPT for the two major categories, where SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE and Danny Boyle are heavy heavy favorites. I also love BUTTON and admire David Fincher, but this hope will probably just remain as that. SLUMDOG is winning everything but the Nobel prize. But very nice work here in every regard. We’ll compare notes afterwards………

  4. After watching Frozen River and Vicki Christina Barcelona, I might have to adjust my actress picks.

    I haven’t seen The Reader yet, but I’m not sure she can beat Melissa Leo this year, who turned in a fantastic performance. Again, the jury is out until I watch The Reader.

    And while Penélope Cruz is definitely deserving of the supporting actress award, I would much rather see Amy Adams take it.

  5. You must be out of your mind. Button was basically Forest Gump Redux (which Roth also wrote the screenplay for) while Slumdog was a completely original idea. I love Fincher’s work but this movie ranks as his 4th best (behind Seven, Fight Club and Zodiac). If Boyle and Slumdog don’t win I will be completely shocked.

  6. A completely original idea based on the novel “Q&A”…yeah. 🙂

  7. penelope can’t win. i don’t like her i hate her and she doesn’t deserve the oscar for vicky cristina barcelona. she’s awful.

  8. I agree with most of the choices, but I think Milk will win Best Original Screenplay (it’s the only one of the 5 nominated for Best Picture, which is always a clue in this category). And I think it’s Kate Winslet’s year. I believe her cameo on Extras was heard loud and clear in Hollywood. Plus she’s has the coolest resumes with some of the best films to date. The Academy makes no bones about overlooking Meryl Streep. And I really think it would have gone to Anne Hathaway, but she suffers from the ‘Norbit’ syndrome with the witless Bride Wars movie.

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